Reality Vs Original Thesis
Use the selected checkpoint week to compare actual LauCo Fund progress against the original Monte Carlo assumptions over the same elapsed trading days.
Actual Fund Total Vs Monte Carlo Band
The p25 / median / p75 band comes from the original start balances over the same elapsed active trading days.
Outcome Distribution So Far
Bucket contribution across all tracked weeks up to the selected checkpoint.
Continuation Forecast Lab
Run the same engine two ways: from the original thesis start, or as a continuation forecast from the current trading and surplus balances.
Scenario start
These presets change only the opening balances. The engine and inputs stay the same.
Outcome mix
The full loss probability is calculated automatically as the remainder.
Payout tuning
Keep this aligned with the same assumptions used on the Monte Carlo lab.
Capital cadence
These stay the same between the original and continuation runs unless you change them here.
Forecast Results
The active scenario uses the same engine, but starts either from the original thesis balances or from the current LauCo trading and surplus balances.
Forecast Wealth Path
Median, 25th percentile, and 75th percentile path for the active scenario.
Forecast Ending Totals
Distribution of ending combined wealth for the active scenario.
Win streak profile
Maximum advancing streak seen across the active scenario.
Loss streak profile
Maximum stop/full-loss cluster seen across the active scenario.